Striking a Balance Market
Striking a Balance: What Canada's Cooling Housing Market Means for Milton, Halton & the GTA
Based on CREA resale data for July 2026, via BMO Economics and Haver Analytics
- The National Picture
- Understanding the Numbers Behind the Headlines
- Regional Variation Remains
- Local Market Conditions: Halton, Peel & Surrounding GTA
- Milton in Focus
- Local Amenities: Schools, Library & Healthcare
- What This Means for Buyers
- What This Means for Sellers
- What This Means for Investors
- Tax Considerations for Halton, Peel; GTA Real Estate
- Frequently Asked Questions
Every month I get asked some version of the same question: "Is now a good time to buy or sell in Milton?" The honest answer never starts with a street address; it starts with what's happening at the national level, because that sets the tone for everything that eventually trickles down to our streets in Halton and Peel. Interest rates, buyer psychology, builder behaviour and investor appetite are all shaped first at the macro level before they show up in a bidding war on a semi in Beaty or a quiet listing in Old Milton.
The latest CREA resale figures for July 2026 tell a consistent, almost reassuring story: Canada's housing market is showing further signs of stabilizing, and conditions are balancing across the country. Volumes and prices appear to have bottomed out in the hardest-hit markets, though the recovery looks flat rather than a forceful rebound. There's no dramatic headline here; no return to 2021-style bidding wars, and no cliff-edge crash either. Still, moving from a deep, multi-year correction to a flat, stable resale market is real progress, and it removes what had become a persistent drag on the broader Canadian economy. For anyone planning a move in Milton, Oakville, Georgetown, Brampton or Mississauga, "boring and stable" is actually good news; it means you can decide based on today's data instead of guessing where the bottom of a falling market might be.
Below, I walk through the national numbers, explain what the jargon actually means, break down what's happening region by region, zoom in on the markets that matter most to Halton and Peel, and finish with a detailed look at the tax considerations that come up again and again with my clients; land transfer tax rebates, the First Home Savings Account, the Home Buyers' Plan, capital gains on investment property, and a few pieces of the puzzle that are easy to get wrong if you're not tracking how the rules have shifted lately.
Existing home sales were down 5.3% year-over-year in July, but rose 0.5% from the prior month on a seasonally-adjusted basis; the third straight monthly gain, even if each of those gains has been modest. Activity remains near the low end of pre-COVID norms, which reflects a subdued but still-functioning market rather than a market in freefall. Think of it this way: the phone is still ringing, showings are still happening, deals are still closing; there are just fewer of them than we got used to during the frenzy of 2020-2022, and roughly in line with what a "normal" Canadian housing market looked like before the pandemic distorted everything.
New listings were down 1.6% in the month and 6.9% from a year ago, which is actually helping keep the market balanced overall. This is a detail that gets glossed over in a lot of coverage: falling listings aren't automatically bad news for buyers. When would-be sellers hold off because they don't love today's price, fewer homes hit the market; and that pullback in supply is quietly offsetting the pullback in demand, which is exactly why we're not seeing prices fall further even though sales volumes remain soft.
That leaves the market balance almost bang on neutral, with the national sales-to-new-listings ratio improving slightly to 51.3% from 50.2% the prior month, while months' supply ticked down to 4.7; right around the long-run average. The national benchmark price was down 3.2% from a year ago, but the declines have clearly leveled off: prices rose 0.1% month-over-month in seasonally-adjusted terms, and the 3-month annualized pace is now roughly flat versus a near -7% pace earlier in the year. Speculation is gone, investor activity is quiet, and prices are largely holding steady alongside low, stable volumes. This is what economists mean when they talk about a market "finding its floor"; not a bounce, just a bottom.
| Canada; Existing Home Sales (% change), July 2026 | Sales m/m | Sales y/y | Price y/y |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | 0.5 | -5.3 | 0.2 |
| Toronto | 3.2 | -0.9 | -4.5 |
| Vancouver | -4.5 | -9.6 | -1.9 |
| Calgary | 1.9 | -6.7 | 2.0 |
| Ottawa | 5.9 | 1.1 | -1.6 |
| Montreal | -0.2 | -10.0 | 4.6 |
Source: BMO Economics, Haver Analytics, CREA
It's worth sitting with that Toronto row for a second, because it's the one most relevant to Milton, Halton and Peel: sales down a modest 0.9% year-over-year, but up 3.2% from the prior month, with prices down 4.5% from a year ago. That combination; sales inching up while year-over-year prices are still negative; is the fingerprint of a market that has stopped falling but hasn't yet started climbing. It's a market where activity is picking back up cautiously while price discovery is still catching up to it.
Before the regional breakdown, here's a plain-language guide to the terms in this post; because these aren't just industry jargon, they're the tools I use to tell a client whether they're negotiating from strength or need to lead with their best offer.
Sales-to-new-listings ratio
Homes sold in a month divided by new listings that same month. Above roughly 60%, the market tips toward sellers; multiple offers, quick sales, often above list. Below roughly 40%, it tips toward buyers; homes sit longer, price reductions become common, and buyers can negotiate conditions like financing and inspection. Between 40% and 60% is a balanced market, where the outcome of any deal depends more on pricing and presentation than on which way the broader market leans.
Months' supply of inventory
How many months it would take to sell all current active listings at today's pace of sales, if no new listings arrived at all. A reading of 4.7, as we saw nationally in July, sits close to Canada's long-run average of four to five months. Below about three signals a seller's market; above about six signals a buyer's market. I use it alongside the sales-to-listings ratio; the ratio shows the current month's momentum, months' supply shows the depth of the backlog behind it.
Benchmark price (MLS Home Price Index)
Unlike a simple average or median price, which can swing month to month just because a few mansions or condos happened to sell, the benchmark price tracks a "typical" home with a fixed set of characteristics over time, making it far more reliable for comparing like-for-like value. When I tell a client the Toronto benchmark is down 4.5% year-over-year, that's a more useful number than the average sale price, which can be skewed by a handful of multimillion-dollar closings or a wave of small condo sales.
Seasonally adjusted vs. year-over-year
Real estate is deeply seasonal; spring is busier than deep winter regardless of what the underlying market is doing. Seasonally-adjusted (m/m, sa) figures strip that pattern out to show whether this specific month was stronger or weaker than normal. Year-over-year (y/y) figures compare to twelve months ago, sidestepping seasonality but sometimes missing recent turning points. I want to see both agree; as they roughly do here; before calling a trend.
The regional variation in market conditions is still very much alive across this country, but the pattern is shifting in an interesting way: some of the hot spots are cooling while the weak spots are getting less bad. Sales were down across most markets from a year ago in July, but the direction of travel; improving, worsening, or holding steady; differs sharply depending on where you look. Let's go through the major regions one at a time.
British Columbia
Vancouver sales were down 9.6% year-over-year, one of the steepest declines among major markets, though its sales-to-new-listings ratio has crept back to the low end of balanced territory, meaning the pace of decline is slowing. Prices there are still fading month-over-month, and it remains one of the weaker markets by most measures. If you have clients relocating from Vancouver to the GTA, many are selling into a soft market on that end, which can affect timelines and negotiating posture here.
Southern Ontario
Southern Ontario; our backyard; is still working through its own correction, with most markets outside the core GTA barely balanced. That's a clear improvement, but let's not forget how stretched activity and valuations got here during the 2020-2022 boom; unwinding that takes more than one good quarter. Toronto sales were down a modest 0.9% year-over-year, and; the detail I find most encouraging; some pockets appear to be firming, namely larger, ground-oriented units. That's the detached and semi-detached segment Milton and Halton move-up buyers watch closely: demand for family-sized homes with a yard hasn't gone anywhere, it's just been waiting for prices and rates to make sense again.
Alberta
Elsewhere, Alberta markets have pivoted from strength to softness; a reversal from recent years, when Calgary and Edmonton were among the strongest markets in the country on a wave of interprovincial migration chasing affordability. Sales-to-new-listings ratios have slipped below 60% in both cities; still balanced territory, but well down from recent seller's-market readings. No market stays hot forever, and the affordability arbitrage that drew buyers to Alberta narrows as prices catch up.
Atlantic Canada and Quebec
Atlantic Canada markets remain tight overall, though price gains have leveled off after a strong multi-year run driven initially by pandemic-era relocations. Montreal and Quebec City are still firm, with healthy sales-to-listings ratios and modest positive price growth; worth remembering for clients weighing a move east.
Housing starts and the construction pipeline
In a separate release, Canadian housing starts fell for a third consecutive month to 229,000 annualized units, though the year-to-date average of 246,000 and 12-month average of 251,000 are still reasonably healthy by historical standards. Homes under construction for ownership and condo purposes are down a recession-like 25,000 units from a year ago, but purpose-built rental activity is masking that decline, up almost 30,000. The ownership pullback is the market rebalancing after years of building condos and freehold units faster than genuine demand could absorb, especially the pre-construction condo segment that got ahead of itself in 2021-2022. The rise in purpose-built rental reflects a structural shift toward institutional and government-supported rental construction likely to persist regardless of where resale prices go; good long-term news for anyone renting in Milton, Oakville or Mississauga while saving toward a down payment.
CREA's regional boards don't break Milton out as its own line item in this dataset, but our market moves in close step with Toronto, Hamilton-Burlington, Guelph and the other communities that ring the western GTA; places that share our mix of detached and freehold housing stock, commuter demographics, and exposure to the same GO Transit and highway corridors. Here's how those markets stacked up as of July 2026:
| Snapshot of Current Market Conditions (July 2026) | Toronto | Ham/Burl | Guelph | Barrie | Niagara | KW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales (y/y %) | -0.9 | -5.3 | -2.2 | 5.9 | -9.3 | -10.6 |
| Sales/Listings (%) | 41.9 | 48.9 | 38.8 | 34.5 | 37.7 | 45.8 |
| MLS HPI (y/y %) | -4.6 | -5.1 | -4.5 | -6.1 | -5.5 | -5.7 |
| Detached ($000s) | 1,140 | 821 | 835 | 740 | 715 | 761 |
| Detached (y/y %) | -4.7 | -4.7 | -4.7 | -5.8 | -5.1 | -4.4 |
| Apartment ($000s) | 533 | 453 | 461 | 410 | 334 | 354 |
| Apartment (y/y %) | -7.2 | -7.9 | -6.5 | -10.6 | -15.5 | -13.7 |
Source: BMO Economics, Haver Analytics, CREA. Green-shaded = seller's market territory (ratio above roughly 60%); terracotta-shaded = buyer's market territory (ratio below roughly 40%).
Notice the pattern: every market on this list except Barrie posted a sales-to-new-listings ratio below 50%, and Guelph, Barrie and Niagara are sitting in clear buyer's market territory, below the 40% threshold. Toronto and Hamilton-Burlington are hovering right around neutral, which lines up with what I'm seeing on the ground in Milton; well-priced, move-in-ready detached homes are still drawing multiple showings, while overpriced or dated listings are sitting for weeks with price-reduction notices piling up.
Toronto
As the anchor market for the entire GTA, Toronto sets the tone for everywhere else, including Milton. A sales-to-listings ratio of 41.9% and a benchmark down 4.6% year-over-year describes a market that has stopped falling in a straight line but hasn't started climbing. The detached figure ($1.14 million, -4.7%) versus apartment ($533,000, -7.2%) shows the correction has bitten harder on the condo side, a pattern that's been building as investor-owned units flooded the resale and rental markets.
Hamilton-Burlington
Hamilton-Burlington sits just southwest of Halton and shares Milton's commuter DNA; GO Transit access, a mix of established and newer subdivisions, and buyers priced out of Toronto during the boom. A sales-to-listings ratio of 48.9%, essentially neutral, and a detached benchmark of $821,000 make it one of the more resilient markets here, even with sales down 5.3% year-over-year.
Guelph
Guelph's 38.8% ratio puts it just into buyer's-market territory, and its detached benchmark of $835,000 reflects its pull as a university town with a growing tech and advanced-manufacturing base. Buyers here have more room to negotiate than the "GTA is expensive" headline suggests.
Barrie
Barrie stands out for two reasons: it's the only market here with positive year-over-year sales growth (up 5.9%), yet it also has the lowest sales-to-listings ratio (34.5%); the deepest buyer's-market reading on this list. That combination suggests a wave of new listings has outpaced even a genuine pickup in buyer activity: renewed interest, but sellers still need to price competitively to convert it into a firm deal.
Niagara and Kitchener-Waterloo
Niagara (37.7% ratio, sales down 9.3%) and Kitchener-Waterloo (45.8% ratio, sales down 10.6%) round out a Southern Ontario correction that's uneven but broadly consistent: soft volumes almost everywhere, prices down mid-single-digits almost everywhere, and Barrie and Guelph sitting more firmly in buyer's territory than Toronto or Hamilton-Burlington.
Milton doesn't get its own line in CREA's regional tables, which is a small irony given how much the town has grown over the past two decades; from a quiet crossroads at the base of the Niagara Escarpment to one of the fastest-growing municipalities in Halton Region and, for stretches of the 2010s and early 2020s, in Canada. That growth is why Milton tracks so closely with the Toronto and Hamilton-Burlington numbers: it's built on the same demand driver; families and young professionals commuting toward Toronto and Mississauga, priced out of the core, seeking a detached or townhome product with reasonable access via the 401, 407 or Milton GO line.
That commuter-town identity cuts both ways. On the upside, newer housing stock, strong schools, and ongoing infrastructure investment (GO service expansion, continued development in the Boyne and Trafalgar Corridor secondary plan areas) give Milton durable long-term appeal that one soft year of data doesn't erase. On the downside, because so much local stock was bought during the 2015-2022 run-up, a meaningful share of owners are sitting on high-ratio mortgages or investment purchases made near the top; part of why we've seen more price-motivated listings here lately than in lower-turnover pockets of old Oakville or central Burlington.
Based on the Hamilton-Burlington and Toronto data ; close proxies for Milton's detached and townhome segments ; I'd place Milton today in balanced-to-slightly-buyer's territory, sales-to-listings ratio in the high-40s to low-50s, prices roughly flat to modestly down over twelve months. Well-priced, well-presented detached homes in the $1.0-1.3 million range are still drawing multiple showings in the first two weeks; townhomes and semis in the $750,000-950,000 range are the most actively traded segment; and new-construction freehold product competes directly with resale, capping how aggressively resale sellers can price.
Market data tells buyers what a home costs; it doesn't tell them what it's like to actually live there. For families relocating to Milton, the community infrastructure below is usually just as decisive as the sales-to-listings ratio, so it's worth knowing where to look:
- Schools: Milton is served by both the Halton District School Board (public) and the Halton Catholic District School Board (Catholic). Both boards publish school boundary maps and enrollment information, which I'd encourage any relocating family to check street-by-street before writing an offer, since boundaries can shift with new development.
- Library: The Milton Public Library operates multiple branches across town and is a genuine community hub ; programming, study space, and a strong draw for families evaluating quality of life beyond square footage.
- Healthcare: Milton District Hospital, part of Halton Healthcare, is the town's full-service hospital and a factor many buyers ; especially those with young children or aging parents; weigh heavily when comparing Milton to communities further from acute care.
If you've been waiting on the sidelines for the market to "cool off" before jumping in, this data suggests that moment has largely already arrived ; and the bigger risk now for buyers isn't overpaying at the peak of a frenzy, it's waiting too long and missing the window where negotiating leverage is genuinely on your side.
- You have real room to negotiate. With months' supply near the long-run average and sales-to-listings ratios in the low-to-mid 40s across Halton and Peel's comparable markets, conditions favour patient, well-financed offers over the rushed, condition-free bids of 2021-2022 ; ask for a home inspection, a financing condition, and a closing date that works for you.
- Get financing sorted before you shop. Pre-approval lets you move decisively on well-priced listings that do attract competition, while giving you the confidence to walk away from anything overpriced.
- Use down-payment tools built for this moment. Between the FHSA, the Home Buyers' Plan, and land transfer tax rebates (see the tax section below), first-time buyers have more government-supported tools available than at almost any point in the past decade; worth a conversation with your broker or accountant before you start shopping.
- Don't assume every listing negotiates the same. Barrie, at a 34.5% sales-to-listings ratio, gives buyers more leverage than Hamilton-Burlington at 48.9%. Ask your agent for the absorption rate in the specific neighbourhood and price band you're targeting, not just the regional headline.
- Watch the ground-oriented segment. Larger, ground-oriented units are firming in Toronto, and I'm seeing early signs of the same in Milton's detached segment; the buyer's market is real, but not uniform across every price band.
Sellers shouldn't read "buyer's market" as "bad market." With prices holding flat rather than falling further, and larger ground-oriented (detached) homes showing early signs of firming in Toronto and Halton, a well-prepared, correctly priced listing is still moving; often faster than sellers expect once they see the first showing schedule come in.
- Price to today's data, not last year's peak. This is the biggest mistake I see sellers make. Pricing to what a neighbour's home sold for at the top of the cycle is the fastest way to sit for 90-plus days, accumulate stale-listing stigma, and ultimately sell for less than if you'd priced correctly from day one; pricing to today's data is what separates a 30-day sale from a 130-day sale.
- Presentation matters more, not less. When buyers have choices, the homes that show best win. Staging, decluttering, fresh neutral paint, and professional photography aren't optional right now.
- Expect a longer runway. With months' supply near the long-run average of 4.7, accepted offers within 24 hours are largely behind us for most price points. Build a realistic timeline, especially if you're also buying and coordinating closing dates.
- Lean into what's firming, if it applies to you. Larger, ground-oriented homes in Milton, Oakville, Burlington or Toronto proper are the segment showing the earliest signs of renewed demand; reflect that in your pricing and marketing, highlighting lot size, extra bedrooms, and finished basements a townhome buyer moving up can't get elsewhere.
- Consider the tax timing of your sale. Whether a property has been your principal residence the whole time, part of the time, or never, has a real impact on what you'll owe; see the tax section below before you list.
Investors are largely on the sidelines nationally right now, which is itself useful information for the investors who are still active: less competition for well-located rental properties in Milton and Halton, at a time when purpose-built rental construction is picking up the slack left by the pullback in ownership-oriented building.
- Less competition means better selection, not none. With fewer bidding wars, ready investors can actually run the numbers on cap rate and cash flow rather than waving conditions to compete with a dozen other bidders.
- The condo segment has taken the harder hit. Toronto's apartment benchmark is down 7.2% year-over-year versus 4.7% for detached, with steeper declines still in Niagara (-15.5%) and Kitchener-Waterloo (-13.7%) — a double-edged sword of entry-point opportunity and genuine oversupply in pre-construction-heavy condo markets.
- Purpose-built rental is where the growth is. Purpose-built rental starts are up almost 30,000 units year-over-year even as ownership-oriented construction fell by a recession-like 25,000. A multi-unit or purpose-built rental investment aligns with the segment that's actually expanding.
- Model both a hold and an exit before you buy. In a flat-price environment, returns depend far more on rental cash flow and financing costs than on appreciation bailing out a marginal deal, the way it often did during 2016-2022. Stress-test any purchase against flat prices for another two to three years.
- Understand the tax mechanics first. Capital gains, CCA recapture, and, for non-resident investors, the Non-Resident Speculation Tax all materially affect returns. See the tax section below.
Understanding the tax side of a purchase or sale is just as important as understanding the market data, and it's an area where the rules have shifted meaningfully over the past two years, so even clients who bought or sold their last property only a few years ago may be working from outdated assumptions. Below is a plain-language walk-through of the pieces that come up most often in my conversations with buyers, sellers and investors across Milton, Halton, Peel and the GTA. This is general information current as of 2026, not personalized tax advice. I always recommend confirming the specifics with your accountant or tax lawyer before making a final decision, and I'm glad to work alongside your advisor on the real estate side of any transaction.
Land Transfer Tax rebates for first-time buyers
Ontario charges provincial Land Transfer Tax on every property purchase, calculated on a sliding scale based on purchase price. First-time home buyers in Ontario can claim a rebate of up to $4,000 against that provincial tax, which fully offsets the tax owing on homes priced up to roughly $368,000 and reduces, though doesn't eliminate, the tax owing above that threshold. Since Milton is not within the City of Toronto, buyers here only deal with the provincial tax and rebate; there's no separate municipal land transfer tax to worry about, which is one underappreciated cost advantage of buying in Halton versus buying within Toronto's city limits.
If you are buying in Toronto proper, there's a second, separate rebate: the city's own Municipal Land Transfer Tax (MLTT) offers first-time buyers a rebate of up to $4,475, on top of the provincial rebate, meaning an eligible first-time buyer purchasing in Toronto can offset up to roughly $8,475 combined between the two programs. Eligibility for both generally requires that you (and your spouse) have never owned a home anywhere in the world, that you're a Canadian citizen or permanent resident, and that you move into the home as your principal residence within nine months of closing; so confirm eligibility with your lawyer before assuming either rebate applies.
The First Home Savings Account (FHSA)
The FHSA remains one of the most powerful tools available to first-time buyers: contributions are tax-deductible like an RRSP, growth inside the account is tax-free, and; unlike an RRSP withdrawal under the Home Buyers' Plan; qualifying withdrawals to buy a first home are never taxed or required to be repaid. The annual contribution limit is $8,000, up to a lifetime maximum of $40,000 per person, meaning a couple who are both first-time buyers can shelter up to $80,000 combined. If you haven't opened one yet and you're even considering a purchase in the next few years, this is usually the first conversation I have with buyer clients, because unused annual contribution room only starts carrying forward once the account is open.
The Home Buyers' Plan (HBP)
The HBP allows first-time buyers to withdraw from an existing RRSP toward a down payment without immediate tax consequences, provided the amount is repaid to the RRSP over time. The withdrawal limit was increased to $60,000 per person, up from the longstanding $35,000 limit, a meaningful boost for buyers in a high-priced market like the GTA, and one that a couple can combine for up to $120,000 between two RRSPs. Repayments are generally required to begin the second year after the withdrawal and are spread over a set number of years; missing a scheduled repayment converts that year's portion into taxable income, so this is very much a "borrow from yourself, but pay yourself back on schedule" program rather than free money.
The principal residence exemption
For most homeowners selling the home they've lived in the whole time they've owned it, any capital gain is fully sheltered from tax under the principal residence exemption; the single biggest tax advantage of Canadian homeownership, and why most sellers in Milton and Halton won't owe a dollar of capital gains tax regardless of how much the property has appreciated. It gets more complicated with a property that wasn't your principal residence the whole time: a former rental you later moved into, a cottage, or a home partly used for a business, where only the portion of the gain tied to the years and space used as your principal residence is exempt.
Capital gains on investment and rental property
For investment properties, secondary residences, and anything that hasn't been your full-time principal residence, capital gains tax applies to the profit on sale. An important 2026 update: the federal government had proposed raising the capital gains inclusion rate from one-half to two-thirds on gains above $250,000, but that increase was ultimately cancelled; the inclusion rate for individuals remains at 50% across the board. That's a meaningfully better outcome than many sellers were bracing for, so if you delayed a sale based on the old proposal, it's worth revisiting with your accountant. Separately, selling a rental property you've claimed Capital Cost Allowance (depreciation) on can trigger "recapture" of that depreciation as fully taxable income, on top of the capital gain; easy to overlook, and it can meaningfully change your after-tax proceeds.
Non-Resident Speculation Tax
Ontario's Non-Resident Speculation Tax applies a 25% tax on residential purchases by foreign nationals, foreign corporations, and certain taxable trustees, on top of regular land transfer tax. It applies province-wide, including in Milton, Halton and Peel, with limited exemptions for those who go on to become permanent residents. If you're working with an international buyer, flag this before an offer is written, not at the lawyer's closing table.
Vacant home taxes and the (former) federal Underused Housing Tax
The federal Underused Housing Tax, which required annual filings from certain owners of vacant or underused property, is being eliminated, a welcome simplification. That doesn't mean vacant-home taxes are gone altogether: Toronto and other municipalities still levy their own vacant home tax on properties left unoccupied for extended periods, separate from and unaffected by the federal UHT's elimination; don't assume one rule change covers the other.
- Is Milton currently a buyer's market or a seller's market?
- Based on the closest available regional comparables, Toronto and Hamilton-Burlington, Milton is sitting in balanced-to-slightly-buyer's territory, with a sales-to-listings ratio likely in the high-40s to low-50s depending on price band and property type. It's not the deep buyer's market we're seeing in Barrie or Guelph, but it's a long way from the seller's-market conditions of 2021.
- Have prices actually stopped falling, or is this a temporary pause?
- The data supports "stopped falling" more than "temporary pause"; the 3-month annualized price pace nationally is now roughly flat, compared to a nearly -7% pace earlier in the year, and this is the third consecutive month of modest sales gains. Nothing in economics is guaranteed, but the trend has been consistent for several months now rather than a one-month blip.
- Should I wait for prices to fall further before buying?
- That's a personal decision that depends on your specific timeline and risk tolerance, but the data doesn't currently support an expectation of further meaningful declines; sales-to-listings ratios are stabilizing and months' supply is sitting right at the long-run average, not climbing toward buyer's-market extremes. Waiting for a further correction that the data doesn't currently point to carries its own risk, namely missing today's negotiating leverage if the market does firm up.
- Is it a good time to sell an investment property?
- It depends heavily on your specific numbers, the property type, how long you've held it, and your cash flow needs, but it's worth knowing that the capital gains inclusion rate increase that was proposed a couple of years ago was ultimately cancelled, so the tax hit on a sale today is likely smaller than many investors were bracing for. Run the numbers with your accountant before deciding either way.
- How much should I budget for closing costs as a first-time buyer in Milton?
- Beyond your down payment, budget for legal fees, title insurance, a home inspection, and Ontario's Land Transfer Tax, though the first $4,000 of that provincial tax is rebated for eligible first-time buyers, which covers the full tax bill on homes up to roughly $368,000. Your lawyer can give you an exact figure once you have a firm purchase price.
- What's the biggest mistake you see sellers make in a market like this one?
- Pricing based on what a neighbour's home sold for at the peak of the market in 2021 or 2022, rather than on current comparable sales. In a balanced-to-buyer's market, an overpriced listing doesn't just fail to sell quickly; it accumulates "stale listing" stigma that makes buyers wonder what's wrong with it, ultimately forcing a larger price cut than if it had been priced correctly from day one.
I'd be glad to walk through what these national and regional trends mean for your specific street and situation, and to help you think through both the market timing and the tax planning side of your next move. Reach out any time; local data is only useful when it's translated into a plan for your home.
Market data source: BMO Economics, Haver Analytics and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), MLS® Home Price Index, as of July 2026. Figures for Milton specifically are not separately reported by CREA; regional comparables (Toronto, Hamilton-Burlington, Guelph) are used as the closest available proxies and are identified as such throughout. Tax figures (land transfer tax rebates, FHSA and HBP limits, capital gains inclusion rate, and the status of the federal Underused Housing Tax) reflect publicly available information as of September 2026 and are subject to change with future federal and provincial budgets. This post is for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal or tax advice , consult a qualified accountant or tax lawyer for guidance specific to your situation.

